Rain Deficit:A Monsoon-friendly La Nina May Last for a Year from Now

Eminent power engineer Nagendranath Mohapatra informs that India has witnessed 14% deficit in monsoon rainfall till mid-July. The water reservoirs are all at Minimum Draw Down Level (MDDL) that has caused concern about water availability for both irrigation and hydel power production at present.

The total water storage in the country’s 81 major reservoirs was down 32% from the 10-year average level on July 15. As many as 79 of the 81 reservoirs monitored by Central Water Commission (CWC) are filled below 40% of their storage capacity.

The combined water stock in all these reservoirs, estimated at 25.54 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), amounts to just 17% of their total water holding capacity/Gross Storage. All the major river basins in the country have negative water balance as the Table shows:

Dr. Jing-Jia, a Senior Scientist with the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) under the Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC) based in Tokyo, Japan said that a monsoon-friendly La Nina condition has been established in the east equatorial Pacific Ocean and under its impact, “above normal” rains will be in August & September and even ¬¬¬¬beyond in autumn and winter in India setting an ideal condition for growing wheat, mustard etc. during ensuring Rabi season. Dr. Jing-Jia said he would not be surprised to see this La Nina condition to remain active for more than one year from now.

Outside India, La Nina conditions are expected to lead to more rains/floods over North-Eastern China while hot/dry condition may emerge over South-East China and Southern Japan. Above normal rains are also indicated for Indonesia, Northern parts of South America and East-Africa during the fall and winter seasons. Many parts of Australia also might experience surplus rains from October, 2010 to early 2011.

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