Government doesn’t bother to halt power famine, will the Assembly please?

HERE WE PLACE A GENERATION PERSPECTIVE PLANNING FOR ORISSA TO MEET THE PRESENT AND FUTURE POWER DEMAND

(With input from Orissa’s eminent power-professionals and planners)

Due to lack of vision and planning, Orissa is at present facing power shortage of about 1200 MW during evening peak hours (from 6 PM to 11 PM) and 600 MW during off-peak hours (the balance 18 hours of the day) as she is unable to meet its evening peak demand of 3200 MW and average demand of 2500 MW even though it is endowed with two super rich coal fields at Talcher and Ib Valley which can generate thermal power of 1 lakh MW for 100 years with hydro potential to harness about 10,000 MW and Renewable Energy potential of about 20000 MW.

As per the Economic Survey for 2008-09 of Govt. of Orissa, the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has registered an annual compound growth of 6.97% over the period 1999-2000 to 2007-08 whereas the demand for electricity has registered a little over 10% during the period 2005-06 to 2008-09.

So it is time to stop thinking of five-year plans for generation planning for capacity addition and to focus in stead on 10, 20 & 30-year scenario. In a rapidly transforming economy, the winners will be the ones who think further ahead. If the state of Orissa as a whole has to be winner, the systemic capacity addition for generation of power has to be planned with great caution and with a serious exercise as power lies in the core of the core sector. The World Management Guru Sri C.K. Prahlad now talks of India at 75 i.e. the year 2022 to consider India’s potential to become a super power. TERI has prepared a Report “GREEN INDIA-2047” to make a really Green India at 100 i.e. in the year 2047. Ministry of Power has already under “VISION-2032” outlined the Integrated Energy Policy which projects the required installed capacity of India at 962 GW and the energy requirement at 4973 BU based on estimated GDP growth @ 8% in FY 2031-32. It would therefore be proper to map the possible power scenarios for the State under “VISION-2025” as power-scientists and planners involved with this site are harping on.

Electric Power Survey

The 17th Electric Power Survey (EPS) Report on India published by CEA in March, 2007 made the forecast for the power demand of Orissa for 11th, 12th & 13th as under Table-1.

As per the Report on Power Supply Situation of CEA for the month of April-Sep,2009 (FY 2009-10), the Orissa System met the peak demand of 3120 MW against the required Peak Demand of 3188 MW and the Energy Availability was of 10599 MU against the actual Energy Requirement of 10728 MU. Orissa will be requiring an installed capacity of about 6780 MW around 2012, 9620 MW around 2017 and 15300 MW around 2022 to cater to the peak demand of 4459 MW, 6330 MW and 10074 MW projected by CEA for 2011-12, 2016-17 & 2021-22 respectively. As against this, the present availability is about 2000 MW. Hence peak shortage is about 1200 MW & off-peak shortage is of about 600 MW. The installed capacity of Orissa from the Central Sector share & State sector is about 4060 MW as on 31.03.2009. Orissa has to add generation capacity of about 2700 MW, 5500 MW and 11,000 MW to cater to the state demand in 2012, 2017 & 2022 respectively considering the installed capacity of 4060 MW as on 31.03.2009 as the base.

As against the requirement of 2700 MW additional installed capacity and about additional energy availability of 7000 MU up to 2012, Orissa may expect additional power from the available sources during 11th plan as under Table-2.

The State has to source an additional 2000 MW in 2011 & 2012 to meet the projected demand made in EPS prepared by CEA, which in July, 2009 has published a Booklet on “Equipment and Key Input Requirement” for the power sector 12th Plan & beyond and has outlined the capacity addition for 12th & 13th Plan for the country as under Table-3

The fund requirement for generation, transmission and distribution during 12th Plan & 13th Plan as the CEA has assed is under Table-4.

CEA has already undertaken the advance action for the projects to be constructed during 12th Plan from now onwards mobilizing the resources and placing the orders for procurement of Equipments for both Main & balance of plants, so that there shall be no slippage in targeted capacity during 12th Plan.Table-5 shows the status of projects under construction of 72,798 MW as on 31.08.2009.

Orissa has to chalk out similar capacity addition programme in generation for addition 5500 MW for 12th Plan in which all the necessary preliminary works including financial closure should have to be achieved by December, 2009 and the project works should start from January, 2010 to be in stream for commercial generating during 12th Plan period. The associated transmission connectivity should have to be also finalized by June, 2010 so that connectivity issue should not crop up at the time of commercial generation of power.

The road map to meet the power shortage, capable of meeting the future power demands of Orissa, may be drawn on short term, medium term and long term basis in the time horizon of less than one year, more than one year but less than three years and three years plus respectively.

Short-term Measures

They include (1) Injection of Surplus Power by CGPs, (2) share from unallocated quota of Central Generating Stati and (3) Harnessing of Solar Power.

Injection of Surplus Power by CGPs

CCPPO during hearing in OERC on 15.10.2009 has assured to inject about 400 MW power provided CGP’s surplus power is paid @ Rs. 4.50/kwh as the Market Price discovered in Power Exchanges averages @ Rs. 10/kwh and has gone upto @ Rs 17/kwh for which CERC has imposed capping on the price for 45 days limiting it to Rs. 8/kwh. OERC has issued orders with a very attractive price for surplus power from CGPs ranging from Rs.3.10/KWH to Rs.4.05/KWH.

Orissa share from unallocated quota of Central Generating Stations

Govt. of Orissa may urge upon GOI, MOP to allot additional 600/700 MW through emergency allotment from 15% unallocated quota of NTPC stations like Farakka STPS, Kahalgaon STPS, Talcher STPS etc. And,

Harnessing of Solar Power

The installed capacity of Soar Power of India is only 6 MW as on 31.10.2009. Eight nos. of IPPs have been permitted by OERC to install Solar Photo-Voltaic (SPV) Plants of 5 MW and 10 MW capacity and the State Commission has given a very attractive tariff of Rs.15/KWH for first twelve years of commercial operation and @ 7.50/KWH for the period from 13th year to 25th year of operation. Govt. of India, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) have issued guidelines that these SPV Plants which commence its construction works by December, 2009 and commence commercial operation by March, 2010 are eligible for subsidy @ Rs.12/KWH for first twelve years of their operation. Based on these stipulations, eight nos. of IPPs may add SPV capacity of about 70/80 MW in Orissa grid as Decentralized Distributed Generation (DDG) by March, 2010 which would help the state to meet the power shortage to some extent. This requires urgent cohesive action by the State Govt., Deptt. of Energy, Deptt. of Science & Technology, the State Nodal Agency OREDA and the State Trading PSU GRIDCO so that Orissa will be a pioneer state in India to add 80 MW Solar Power by March, 2010.

Medium term measures

They may be Brown-field expansion and Energy conservation.

Brown-field expansion

Putting emphasis on Brown-field expansion, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission has been advising the State Govt. since 2006 with reminders in 2007 & 2008 u/s 86 of the Act to immediately start the expansion projects at IB Thermal (2×660 MW) and Talcher Thermal (2×660 MW) to cater to the power need of the State.

These brown-field expansions only take the constructions/gestation period of about 30 months for commercial generation of power. The Government of Orissa should immediately start these brown-field projects exerting pressure on OPGC and NTPC.

Energy conservation

Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) of Ministry of Power, Govt. of India has launched a Unique Energy Conservation Scheme on 25.02.2009 in the National Plane styled as Bachhat Lamp Yojana (BLY) where BEE intends to give 50 lakhs CFL bulbs of capacity 11 watts to 23 watts to each distribution company @ Rs.15/- each to replace all the incandescent 60 W/100 W bulbs as these CFLs will give the same lumens output with the required illumination. It is tentatively estimated that the State of Orissa can reduce its peak demand from 6 PM to 11 PM by about 400 MW if these 4 DISCOMs can implement the BLY in their area entering into a tripartite agreement with BEE and their empanelled CFL Manufacturers/Traders with a token investment of about Rs.20 cores in FY 2010-11 but they will earn annual profit bonanza from FY 2011-12 onwards of about Rs.80-90 crores/month. Govt. of Orissa and OERC should direct and insist on all the four Distribution Companies to adopt BLY of BEE as “MISSION-2010” and DISCOMs should be directed to complete the BLY in their DISCOMs by end of 2010 so that Orissa can reduce its 40% evening peak demand by end of 2010 due to this BLY alone.

Long Term measures

(1) Thermal Projects under MoU

On this leg, the companies having signed MoUs must be made expedite their work.

In the International Conclave on Power Sector on the “12th Five-Year Plan and Beyond” held on 18th and 19th August 2009 at New Delhi, Thermal Projects as under Table – 6 have been firmed up by CEA and MoP for materialization in the 12th plan out of the 21 MOUs for Thermal Projects that have been signed by the Govt. of Orissa.

The State may get 25% to 30% share of about 1125 MW from these four Private Thermal Projects expected commercial generation during the 12th plan period.

(2) Thermal project of OTPCL

Orissa should give top priority to start the construction work of OTPCL’s (JV of OHPC and OMC) 2000 MW Thermal Project near Rengali from April, 2010 for which Ministry of Coal, Govt. of India, has allocated a separate Coal Block so that the 1st stage of Project (1000 MW) can be completed by 2015 and 2nd stage project (1000 MW) by 2018.

3) Orissa Ultra Mega Power Project

Govt. of Orissa should urge upon MOP & PFC to put Orissa Sundargarh UMPP in a fast track mode to auction and finalize the award to private developer to complete this UMPP in the 12th plan period from which Orissa is slated to get about 1300 MW power. And,

(4) Thermal Projects developed by IPPs

The Govt. of Orissa has signed 21 MOUs with 21 nos. of IPPs to develop about 25000 MW of Thermal Power in the State. The Govt. should immediately sort out the land, coal and water linkage problems of these IPPs so that instead of 4500 MW expected in the 12th Plan, Orissa may add about 12000 MW during the 12th Plan period. The balance 13000 MW may have to be planned to come up in 13th and 14th Plan period.

Suggestions for improvement of ailing Orissa Power Sector

1. The Govt. of Orissa should prepare a generation plan for capacity addition under “VISION-2025” by March, 2010 and outline therein the Road Map of capacity addition.

2 The Govt. should immediately appoint a full time three-member Task Force to monitor the power sector developments continuously so that Orissa can be saved from the power famine that is looming large over the State in short-term and to prepare Orissa to undertake capacity addition under “VISION-2025”.

3 The Task Force should be headed by eminent Power Sector professionals from Orissa having expertise in Thermal, Hydro & Techno-Commercial matters relating to the Orissa Power Sector.

4 The Task Force should monitor all upcoming Power Projects and associated connectivity issues for the 11th and 12th Plan and take advance action plan for projects to come up in 13th Plan as indicated below:-

(a) Thermal Projects of private developers, other Govt. PSU and UMPP to be setup through award/auction to be processed by PFC.

(b) Hydel Projects – large, medium, small, Mini and micro Projects.

© Renewable Energy Projects – Solar, Wind, Biomass etc. now coordinated by OREDA as the State Nodal Agency for Centralized and Decentralized Distributed Generation (DDG).

(d) Connectivity and power evacuation from all the upcoming projects mentioned under “VISION-2025”.

(e) Energy conservation measures for avoided generation in the line of guidelines of Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) to monitor the BLY under “MISSION-2010” Programme and other associated conservation measures formulated by BEE from time to time.

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